FEMS Microbes
◐ Oxford University Press (OUP)
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match FEMS Microbes's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Sharma, A.; Gressent, A.; Real, E.; Nguyen, K. N.; Corso, M.; Pascal, M.; Medina, S.; Wagner, V.; Slama, R.; Colette, A.; Jean, K.
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Background: Climate mitigation policies can lower air pollutant concentrations and deliver substantial health co-benefits. The French Ecological Transition Agency (ADEME) proposed four contrasting Transitions 2050 net-zero scenarios. We quantified mortality, morbidity, and health-economic co-benefits from projected PM2.5 and NO2 reductions across all four scenarios in continental France. Methods: Emission projections were input to the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model to estimate PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations for 2030 and 2050. Health impacts were assessed using disease-specific cessation-lag assumptions relative to 2019, covering premature mortality, morbidity, DALYs, and economic benefits across nine outcomes (hypertension, lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, type-2 diabetes, acute lower respiratory infections, and asthma in children and adults). Findings: Population exposure is projected to decline by about 40% for PM2.5 and 70% for NO2 by 2050, with health gains remaining substantial and broadly equivalent across all four scenarios and modest differences between sufficiency-oriented and technology-driven pathways. Under delayed-impact assumptions, avoided premature deaths ranged from 21,300 to 22,100 for PM2.5 and 24,500 to 26,200 for NO2. Morbidity and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) reductions, as well as economic savings, spanned similarly; total avoided morbidity cases were 84,000-88,000, direct medical cost reductions were e1.0-1.1 billion/year, and intangible cost savings of e41-43 billion and e36-39 billion, respectively. Interpretation: Health co-benefits are substantial, consistent across contrasting scenarios, and increase markedly from 2030 to 2050. Explicitly incorporating these co-benefits into climate policy appraisals may strengthen the case for ambitious mitigation and improve decision-maker acceptability.
Moloney, S.; Hajmohammadi, H.; Wood, H. E.; Mead, M. I.; Mudway, I. S.; Mosler, G.; Thomson, A. C.; Gonzalez Calvo, I.; Scales, J.; Whitehouse, A.
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Introduction Air pollution is the largest environmental risk to human health. Children are disproportionately affected by air pollution and their exposure is amplified during physical activity. Observed concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in 1 in 4 London school playground exceeds the European limit, but the health impacts of air pollution exposure in London school playgrounds remain unexplored. Our study aims to assess and compare the acute changes in lung function and airway inflammation of primary school-aged children exercising in school playgrounds. Methods and analysis 330 children aged 8 to 11 years from ten London schools will be recruited to complete 90 minutes of physical activity and 90 minutes of rest in their school playground in a randomised crossover design. Pre-, post-, and 24-hour post-exposure oscillometry measurements will be performed with airway resistance at 5 Hz (R5) the primary physiological outcome. Nasal lavage samples will be collected pre-exposure and 24-hour post-exposure for analysis of inflammatory, oxidative, and vascular biomarkers, with IL-6 as the primary biological outcome. Mixed-effects regression models will examine associations between estimated pollutant exposures, exercise and physiological responses.
Wittkopp, S.; Asachi, P.; Kazatsker, F.; Aleman, J. O.; Gordon, T.; Brook, R.; Thorpe, L.; Newman, J. D.
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Introduction Air pollution is a leading driver of cardiovascular disease with a growing body of literature implicating this in worse glucose homeostasis. Increases in fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) are associated with increased blood glucose and hemoglobin A1c across the glycemic spectrum from normoglycemia to prediabetes to all forms of diabetes. Despite strong evidence for positive associations of PM2.5 with dysglycemia, it remains unknown if reducing air pollution exposure through air filtration can effect improvements in glucose. This study aims to test the hypothesis that short-term, in-home air pollution reduction using high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filtration will improve blood sugar in adults with prediabetes. Methods and analysis This trial is a randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled trial of the effects of lowering air pollution exposure using HEPA filtration on cardiometabolic health in adults with prediabetes living in the New York City area. Participants will be randomly assigned to use bedroom air cleaners, or sham air cleaners, while measuring PM2.5 continuously for 1 month. The primary outcomes will be continuous glucose monitoring metrics measured before and after HEPA air filtration. Exploratory outcomes will include insulin resistance measures, serum biomarkers and transcriptomics measured before and after HEPA intervention. We will quantify effects of HEPA filtration with models using treatment arm (true versus sham filtration) as the independent variable. Secondary analyses will model continuous measures of PM2.5 as the independent variable. Ethics and Dissemination This study has undergone peer review; and the work was supported by Grant 2023-0214 from the Doris Duke Foundation, who had no other role in study design or implementation. The study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05994937) prior to recruitment. Clinical Trials Clinical Trials NCT05994937; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05994937
Richard, V.; De Ridder, D.; Heritier, H.; Lorthe, E.; Dumont, R.; Bovio, N.; Nehme, M.; Barbe, R. P.; Posfay-Barbe, K. M.; McDade, T. W.; Vuilleumier, N.; Guessous, I.; Stringhini, S.
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Background Childhood overweight and obesity represent major public health challenges, shaped by socio-economic and environmental factors. This study investigates the mediating and moderating role of urban environmental exposures in socio-economic disparities in childhood excess weight. Methods Data was drawn from a population-based sample of children (2-9 years) and adolescents (10-17 years) living in Geneva, Switzerland. Parents reported household financial situation and children's height and weight, from which excess weight (i.e. overweight or obesity) was derived. Residential exposures to air pollution (PM2.5, NO2), noise (daytime, nighttime), and neighborhood greenness (green areas, canopy coverage) were estimated based on geocoded residential addresses. The association between household financial situation and excess weight was evaluated, as well as the mediating and moderating roles of urban environmental exposures. Results The analysis included 1006 children and 1154 adolescents. Among children, an average-to-poor household financial situation was associated with higher odds of excess weight in children (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13; 2.84). Higher noise exposure was associated with excess weight (daytime: aOR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.10; 1.77, nighttime: aOR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.08; 1.74), while the association with PM2.5 appeared stronger among socio-economically disadvantaged children, though the interaction did not reach statistical significance (financial situation x PM2.5 interaction: aOR: 1.59, 95% CI: 0.98; 2.59). No significant associations were observed among adolescents. Conclusion These findings highlight the joint influence of social and environmental inequalities on childhood excess weight and stress the need to address these interconnected determinants to design equitable, targeted public health interventions.
de Barros, B.; Hamza, A.; Getachew, A.; Medhi, M.; Sultana, F.; Acharya, B.; Pai, V.; Wakade, A.; Bhame, B.; Hagge, D.; Napit, I.; Shah, M.; Maximus, N.; Darlong, J.; Listiawan, M. Y.; Doni, S.; Nicholls, P.; Genser, B.; Lambert, S. M.; Lockwood, D. N. J.; Walker, S. L.
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Background Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is a severe inflammatory complication of lepromatous leprosy characterised by recurrent inflammatory episodes often requiring prolonged immunosuppression. The severity of ENL can be quantified using the validated and reliable ENLIST ENL Severity Scale (EESS). The longitudinal course of ENL and how it is captured using standardised severity measures has not been well described. We prospectively evaluated the changes in ENL severity over time using the EESS in a randomised clinical trial. Methods We conducted a post-hoc analysis of participants enrolled in the Methotrexate and Prednisolone Study in ENL, an international multicentre randomised controlled trial conducted in Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, and Nepal. Adults with severe ENL (EESS score [≥]9) were followed for 60 weeks with repeated EESS assessments. Longitudinal trajectories were analysed using mixed-effects regression models. Item-level analyses characterised the clinical phenotype captured by the scale. Associations between EESS score, prednisolone exposure, and dermatology-specific health-related quality of life measured using the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) were examined. Findings A total of 135 participants contributed 1,958 EESS assessments. Mean EESS declined rapidly during the first four weeks of treatment (-2.10 points/week; 95% CI -2.36 to -1.84; p<0.001), increased modestly during reduction in corticosteroid dose (weeks 4-20), and gradually declined thereafter. Severe ENL (EESS score [≥]9) occurred in 20.6% of visits and was characterised primarily by pain and cutaneous inflammatory manifestations. Participants who required additional prednisolone had persistently higher EESS scores and showed limited improvement compared with those who did not receive additional prednisolone. Longitudinal EESS scores were strongly correlated with the DLQI score (Spearmans {rho}=0.75; p<0.001). Conclusion The EESS captures clinically meaningful changes in ENL severity, aligns with treatment decisions, and reflects patient-reported severity over time. These findings support the use of the EESS as a robust tool for monitoring ENL severity in both clinical research and routine care.
Souza-Talarico, J. N.; Lehmler, H.-J.; Caldwell, J. K.; Cortes, Y.; Zuelsdorff, M.; Fun, Y.; Embree, J.; Doyle, C.; Halverson, K.; Martinez Rangel, M.; Harb, A.; Croskey, O.; Britt, K.; Howland, C.; Capuano, A. W.
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INTRODUCTION: Alzheimers disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) arise from cumulative environmental, social, behavioral, and biological influences across the life course. The neural exposome framework conceptualizes how exogenous, behavioral, and endogenous factors interact to shape brain health; however, its application to preclinical AD/ADRD research, particularly in rural populations, remains limited. METHODS: We developed and piloted a community-embedded, decentralized research model to operationalize the neural exposome framework among cognitively unimpaired adults aged 45+ in two rural Midwestern U.S. communities, integrating environmental, social, behavioral, geospatial, and biological measures to evaluate exposure-related neurobiological and cognitive vulnerability. RESULTS: This approach demonstrated high feasibility and acceptability, achieving strong recruitment, retention, data completeness, and multidomain biomarker collection in rural community-based settings DISCUSSION: Pilot findings support the feasibility of neural exposome-informed research in rural U.S. communities and highlight its potential to advance prevention-oriented research on brain health and AD/ADRD.
Zhou, G.; Williams, G.; Millner, M. T.; AlHirayban, R.; Alosaimi, W.; Fallatah, O.; Hart, A. J.; Malaikah, M.; Iftikhar, S.; Ahmad, H.; Roghanian, M.; Mustonen, V.; AlYami, R.; Banzhaf, M.; Moradigaravand, D.
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Background Bacterial fitness is shaped by interactions between genome variation and environmental context, yet how these interactions determine its predictability and heritability remains unclear. In the clinically important pathogens of Klebsiella pneumoniae, a leading cause of hospital-acquired infections, this question is particularly pressing. Despite extensive genomic characterization, we still lack a systematic understanding of how genome-wide variation translates into fitness across diverse environments in K. pneumoniae. Methods We filled this gap by profiling a systematic collection of 1,462 clinical K. pneumoniae isolates across 214 diverse environmental and pharmacological stress conditions using high-throughput chemical genomics. Fitness was quantified from colony growth and integrated with whole-genome sequencing data. Genome-wide association analyses identified genetic determinants of fitness, and machine learning models incorporating genomic features were used to predict fitness.Results Fitness exhibited a strongly environment-dependent genetic architecture, with modest but significant concordance between genetic background and phenotypic variation. Under antibiotic and stress-combination conditions, fitness was driven by discrete, high-effect determinants, including known resistance genes, resulting in stronger signals and improved predictability. In contrast, non-antibiotic environments showed more polygenic and distributed architectures with weaker associations. Genome-wide analyses identified both established and previously uncharacterized genes linked with fitness across conditions. Resistance and virulence determinants exhibited clear context-dependent trade-offs, conferring fitness advantages under selection but imposing costs in non-selective environments. Consistent with this, plasmid carriage showed environment- and genotype-dependent fitness effects, with benefits under antibiotic pressure and measurable costs otherwise. Genomic variant-based models for fitness prediction achieved moderate performance (Mean Spearman correlation ({rho}) = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.18-0.67) for predicted versus observed values in unseen data) across conditions, with improved accuracy under strong antibiotic selective pressures, and produced well-calibrated prediction intervals with high coverage. Despite strong population structure effect on predictions, models captured predictive gene and SNP biomarkers for fitness. Conclusion These findings highlight that bacterial fitness is an emergent property of genome-environment interactions rather than a fixed attribute of genotype. This work establishes a unified high-dimensional genotype-phenotype framework linking genomic variation to fitness across diverse conditions in a major pathogen, with broader implications for other pathogenic bacterial species.
Soeters, H. M.; Antoni, S.; Iyer, S. S.; Weldegebriel, G.; Biey, J.; Mwenda, J. M.; Rey-Benito, G.; Ortiz, C.; Pastore, R.; Videbaek, D.; Singh, S.; Njambe, E.; Sangal, L.; Dhongde, D.; Grabovac, V.; Logronio, J.; Fahmy, K.; Ghoniem, A.; Armah, G.; Dennis, F. E.; Seheri, M. L.; Magagula, N.; Rakau-Nondela, K.; Fumian, T. M.; Maciel, I. T. A.; Samoilovich, E.; Semeiko, G.; Varghese, T.; Thomas, S.; Bines, J.; Li, D.; Kabir, F.; Liu, J.; Houpt, E. R.; Gautam, R.; Mirza, S. A.; Vinje, J.; Mulders, M. N.; Tate, J. E.; Parashar, U. D.; Platts-Mills, J. A.; Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance net
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Background Diarrhea remains a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality worldwide. Improved and ongoing estimates of the etiologies of severe diarrhea, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are crucial to inform the use of current vaccines and other interventions and to help prioritize the development of new vaccines. Producing rigorous longitudinal data on the global burden and etiology of pediatric diarrhea requires a geographically broad surveillance network with standardized epidemiologic, laboratory, and analytic protocols. Methods We describe the rationale and methods of the Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance (GPDS) network, a World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated public health surveillance network investigating the etiology of hospitalized diarrhea among children aged <5 years in LMICs. The GPDS network enrolls children hospitalized with diarrhea at 38 sentinel surveillance sites in 31 LMICs across all 6 WHO Regions. Randomly selected stool specimens were tested by TaqMan Array Card quantitative polymerase chain reaction for 16 enteric pathogens previously associated with pediatric diarrhea. GPDS produces estimates of pathogen-specific attributable fractions and incidence of diarrheal hospitalizations at the global, regional, and country levels. Conclusions As a WHO-coordinated global surveillance network, GPDS evaluates pathogens associated with hospitalized pediatric diarrhea. The network monitors the changing burden of pathogens over time, monitors circulating strains, and generates data to inform decision-making around public health interventions. GPDS also improves global, regional, and country diarrheal disease burden estimates, informs new enteric vaccine development, and potentially provides a platform for future enteric vaccine evaluation.
McCormick, K. M.; Amarasena, N.; Guzzo, G.; Nath, S.; Jamieson, L.
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Aim: Cross-sectional summaries of periodontitis based on clinical attachment loss (CAL) are, by definition, conditioned on surviving teeth. Because the most severely affected teeth are more likely to have been lost, these measures may underestimate cumulative disease burden and show an artificial flattening (attenuation) of severity with age. We hypothesised that measures more sensitive to severe attachment loss would show greater attenuation at older ages than measures defined across a broader range of sites. Materials and Methods: Using nationally representative data from adults aged 30+ years in NHANES 2009-2014, we examined age-specific trajectories across multiple continuous measures of periodontal severity and assessed whether divergence between measures followed the pattern predicted under severity-dependent tooth loss. Results: The proportion of observable sites declined from 93% at ages 30-34 to 68% at 80+ years, establishing the structural basis for the divergence observed across severity measures. All severity measures showed nonlinear attenuation with age, with distortion increasing with severity threshold. Higher-threshold measures exhibited the greatest attenuation, while lower-threshold measures showed more stable trajectories. Conclusions: Cross-sectional summaries of periodontitis reflect disease among surviving teeth rather than cumulative damage across teeth originally at risk. Attenuation at older ages is consistent with depletion of the most severely affected teeth rather than biological slowing. Distortion varies by measure, with higher-threshold and mean-based indices most affected, whereas the CAL 3+ mm threshold provides a more stable basis for age comparisons.
Krichen, J.; SGHAIER, A.; Dhouib, R.; Souii, S.; Tioumi, M.; Sindi, S.; Faidi, B.; Ben Salah, K.
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Background Outpatient groin hernia repair is widely recommended globally due to clinical and socioeconomic efficiency, yet it remains underutilized in developing healthcare systems like Tunisia. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of a newly implemented day-surgery clinical pathway for groin hernias and identify specific predictors associated with outpatient discharge failure. Methods A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted at a Tunisian tertiary hospital between September 2023 and April 2024. A total of 85 consecutive patients scheduled for elective groin hernia repair under an optimized clinical pathway were enrolled. Inclusion criteria spanned ASA classes I-III, age [≥]16 years, proximity to the hospital [≤]50 km), and presence of a literate adult caregiver. Outpatient failure (unanticipated admission) was defined as the inability to achieve discharge within 24 hours post-surgery. Statistical associations were determined using Chi-squared, Fisher's exact, and independent t-tests. Results The cohort primarily comprised males (n = 82, 96.5%) with a mean age of 56 years (range: 19-86). Successful ambulatory discharge was achieved in 80 patients (94.1%), yielding a failure rate of 5.9% (n = 5). Unanticipated admissions were triggered by uncontrolled pain (n = 1), acute anxiety (n = 2), decompensation of comorbidities (n = 1), and a Post-Anesthetic Discharge Scoring System (PADSS) score < 10 (n = 1). Overall 30-day morbidity was low (2.4%), presenting as minor wound or scrotal hematomas managed conservatively; no surgical site infections, acute urinary retention, or mortality occurred. Univariate analysis revealed that a hernial sac size measured at its maximum diameter between 1.5 and 3 cm was significantly associated with ambulatory failure (p = 0.047). General anesthesia showed a trend toward increased failure compared to regional anesthesia (p = 0.08). Conclusion Day-surgery groin hernia repair is highly safe and feasible in resource-constrained environments, even for elderly or stable ASA III patients, provided rigorous social criteria are satisfied. A small hernial sac size (1.5-3 cm) constitutes a major anatomical predictor of failure, likely due to distinct dissection dynamics and localized post-operative pain profiles.
Marshall, A. T.; Kan, E.; Adise, S.; König, M.; McConnell, R.; Martinez, M.; Midya, V.; Arora, M.; Sowell, E. R.
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Lead is a toxic metal ubiquitous in our environment. While dramatic reductions in lead sources have paralleled equivalent decreases in lead-poisoning rates, chronic lead exposure remains a critical public health concern. Childhood lead exposure (at its lowest levels) is liked to changes in cognitive development but less is known about lead's effects on children's brain structure, especially as a result of in utero exposure. We measured prenatal and early-postnatal lead exposure in shed deciduous teeth of 448 9- and 10-year-old children (from 20 United States cities) and linked those lead levels to childhood brain structure, cognition/behavior, and neighborhood- and family-level socioeconomic characteristics. Here we show negative associations between tooth-lead levels and the thickness of the brain's cortex, particularly in regions linked to language processing. With increasing tooth-lead levels, children of lower-income (versus higher-income) families showed steeper declines in receptive vocabulary. Caregiver-reported behavioral problems exhibited similar associations. With in utero exposure linked to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes (well before lead exposure and its risks are evaluated by healthcare professionals), prenatal screening of maternal lead levels/exposure, coupled with recommended strategies to reduce its placental transmission, may help reduce lead's effects on future generations.
Goodman, M. O.; Alex, R. M.; Sands, S. A.; Azarbarzin, A.; Batool-anwar, S.; Pavlova, M. K.; Epstein, L. J.; Redline, S.; Cade, B. E.
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Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with a wide range of comorbidities, but the extent to which these follow predictable, age-dependent patterns is not well understood. Identifying such patterns could provide insight into OSA heterogeneity and its links to physiological measures of OSA. We trained age-dependent topic models (ATM) on longitudinal electronic health records from 36,426 patients with OSA in the Mass General Brigham Biobank. ATM organizes incident diagnoses into distinct comorbidity "topics," whose age-specific disease loadings represent predictive patterns linking related diagnoses across the life course. We applied the trained model to compute individual-level topic scores in independent data: a cohort of 11,689 OSA cases and 22,695 matched controls, and a cohort of 6,220 patients with polysomnography (PSG)-derived physiological measures. We identified 19 distinct age-dependent comorbidity profiles, all significantly associated with OSA case status (FDR-adjusted p<0.05). Topics reflected recognizable clusters including metabolic, neuropsychiatric, and immune-mediated conditions, and several were distinguished by age-of-onset of key comorbidities, such as early- vs late-onset asthma. Seventeen of the 19 topics were significantly associated with at least one of 13 PSG-derived physiological measures, including associations between cardiometabolic topics and the apnea-hypopnea index, sleep apnea specific hypoxic burden, and respiratory event-specific heart rate burden. These findings indicate that age-dependent comorbidity patterns distinguish meaningful OSA subtypes with differing prognoses and endophenotype associations. ATM offers insight into complex OSA comorbidity and suggests that age-informed, topic-based stratification may improve individualized risk assessment, interpretation of PSG findings, and targeting of clinical interventions.
Kiss, Z.; Meszner, Z.; Kulcsar, A.; Bogos, K.; Habon, T.; Moldvay, J.; Papai-Szekely, Z.; Tamasi, L.; Torzsa, P.; Voko, Z.; Wittmann, I.; Molnar, G. A.; Rokszin, G.; Kovacs, V.; Abonyi-Toth, Z.; Barcza, Z.; Szabo, T. G.; Varnai, M.; Odhiambo, R.; Berta, A.; Darida, M.; Horvath, I.; Kovacs, K. A.; Neuhauser, N.; Lakatos, B.; Muller, V.
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Background: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a major global health burden disproportionately affecting older adults and people with comorbidities, with Streptococcus pneumoniae as one of the leading bacterial causes in Europe. The Hungarian Occurrence and Burden of PnEumonia (Hungarian-HOPE) study examined the incidence, hospitalization rates, and mortality of CAP between 2016 and 2020 in Hungary. Methods: The National Health Insurance Fund database was used to identify adult CAP patients (all-cause) based on ICD-10 codes J10-18. Outcomes included CAP incidence, 0-15-day hospitalization, and 0-30-day mortality after hospitalization, stratified by age, sex, and comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], asthma, cardiovascular disease [CVD], and type 1 and 2 diabetes [T1DM, T2DM]). Risk maps visualized relative risk gradients across population strata. Results: During the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019), over 100,000 CAP cases and more than 50,000 hospitalizations were recorded annually. In 2020, recorded cases fell to approximately 98,000, while hospitalizations increased to 66,200. Hospitalization rates increased from 25.1% in 2016 to 29.1% in 2019, then increased to 43.1% in 2020. The 30-day mortality among hospitalized patients rose from 22.7% in 2016 to 23.6% in 2019. Incidence, hospitalization, and mortality all increased with age. Relative to healthy males aged 30-39 years, CAP risk escalated steeply in the [≥]80 years cohort (incidence 5-15-fold; hospitalization >3-fold; mortality 11-24-fold) and was further amplified by COPD, CVD, or T2DM, with a lesser effect for T1DM. Conclusions: The results highlight the substantial age- and comorbidity-driven CAP burden in Hungary and support prioritization of preventive strategies including pneumococcal vaccination for older adults and high-risk groups.
Zhang, H.; Henson, R. N.; Chen, S.; Wen, H.; Fang, Y.; Zhao, X.; Pang, T.; Rowe, J.; Xu, X.; Tsvetanov, K. A.
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Background As dementia prevalence rises globally, it is critical to find preventions that target modifiable risk factors like blood pressure. Pulse pressure (PP), a marker of arterial stiffness, contributes independently to cognitive impairment. Yet, clinically interpretable thresholds for PP for cognitive decline remain undefined. We examined the independent association between PP and domain-specific cognitive trajectories and identified PP thresholds associated with greater cognitive decline across ethnically diverse regional populations. Methods Data were harmonized across three longitudinal cohorts (54,878 participants with up to 20 years follow-ups and 266,144 observations). Linear mixed-effects models identified a nonlinear association between PP and cognition (memory, orientation, and executive function), whereby cognitive decline accelerated after around 50 mmHg of pulse pressure, despite controlling for mean arterial pressure and dementia risk factors. Stratification based on PP thresholds (Low: PP <30; Normal: 30 to <50; Borderline: [≥]50; and High: [≥]60 mmHg), and tested for differences in memory decline across groups. Stratified analyses were similarly conducted across other blood pressure measures, racial, age and sex groups. Findings Non-linear associations indicated that memory decline was particularly noticeable for pulse pressure [≥]60 mmHg. Compared with normal pulse pressure, [≥]60 mmHg was associated with worse memory performance (pooled {beta} -0.062 SD; 95% CI -0.107 to -0.016) and greater memory decline with age (-0.026 SD/year; -0.036 to -0.015), including among normotensive individuals. Findings were consistent across diverse regional cohorts (UK, US and China), racial groups, age strata and sexes. Interpretation Pulse pressure over 60 mmHg is associated with elevated cognitive risk, independent of blood pressure measures, even among normotensive individuals. These findings support pulse pressure thresholds as clinically interpretable and complementary markers of cognitive risk.
Lessler, J.; Smith, C. P.; Das, P.; Sykes, A. L.; Urbinati, A.; Geith, K.; Powers, K. A.; Davis, J. T.; Kern-Allely, S. C.; Vega Yon, G. G.; Lofgren, E. T.; Pearson, C. A. B.; Vespignani, A.
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Background: The 2026 FIFA World Cup may bring over one million visitors to North America from around the globe to participate in mass gathering events. The nature of the event and recent news have raised concerns for some that the tournament could lead to infectious disease outbreaks or fuel existing epidemics. Objective: To systematically assess the infectious disease threat posed to the United States by the tournament. Design: A multi-institutional team evaluated pathogen-specific risk across three dimensions: importation, outbreak potential, and impact to identify a priority pathogen list. A systematic screening protocol ensured common criteria and that pathogen information was collected when necessary to inform inclusion. Results: Increased risk from the World Cup is near zero for 63 of 77 evaluated pathogens. Pathogens were predominantly excluded as threats due to low excess importation risk and low outbreak potential if introduced. The remaining priority pathogens fall into five categories: (a) mosquito borne pathogens with the potential for sustained transmission in some host cities, (b) seasonal respiratory viruses, (c) chronic infections with high prevalence outside the United States, (d) pathogens present in the United States with likely increased transmission at World Cup activities, and (e) high-consequence infectious threats. Limitations: Data availability is variable across diseases. Impact calculations may not reflect actual costs to host cities. Disease incidence in World Cup travelers may differ from national incidence rates. Conclusion: While infectious disease outbreaks at the 2026 FIFA World Cup are possible, in an already highly connected world where large gatherings are frequent, the elevated risk from the tournament is not as extreme as it first may seem.
Smith, D. R.; Buckell, J.; Hancock, T. O.; Morrell, L.; Pouwels, K.
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Background: Wearing facemasks and practising social distancing slow the spread of respiratory pathogens. However, in the event of a new pandemic emerging, the willingness of populations to voluntarily adopt these behaviours is unclear. Methods: A discrete choice experiment was conducted among 2,006 UK-based adults. Participants were presented with hypothetical scenarios describing the emergence of a respiratory virus pandemic and were asked to choose when they would wear facemasks and practise social distancing. A mixed multinomial logit model was used to jointly estimate how disease severity and prevalence, uncertainty in these quantities, and individual-level characteristics influence behavioural choices. Findings: Participants were averse to facemasks and social distancing in the absence of pandemic risk. For each ten-unit increase in severity (10 additional hospitalisations/1,000 infections), the odds of always wearing a facemask outside the home increased by 15.9% (95%CI: 14.3%, 17.5%), relative to rarely/never, and the odds of avoiding all people as much as possible increased by 16.4% (14.6%, 18.2%), relative to not avoiding anyone. Greater disease prevalence, uncertainty in disease severity or disease prevalence, a university education, prior COVID-19 vaccination and non-white ethnicity were also associated with choosing to always wear facemasks and avoid all people as much as possible. The probability of participants choosing to rarely/never wear facemasks varied from 13.4% (11.9%, 14.9%) in the lowest-risk scenario to 1.4% (1.2%, 1.7%) in the highest-risk scenario. Interpretation: Perceived risks of disease and associated uncertainty drive intention of UK adults to adapt their behaviour in a future pandemic.
Nag, S.; Banerjee, S.; Banerjee, S.; Ghosh, S.; Bera, A.; Shanmugam, S.; Mondal, A.; Chakraborty, S.
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Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the deadliest infectious diseases, with over a million deaths annually and a growing threat from multidrug-resistant strains (MDR-TB). A major bottleneck in controlling TB is the lack of truly portable, rapid, and user-friendly diagnostic systems that can operate effectively in decentralized, resource-constrained settings. Here, we present a first-of-its-kind, portable nucleic-acid-based diagnostic platform that enables both primary TB screening and detection of drug resistance within the same unified framework, without any change in the operative embodiment. The system integrates loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) targeting dual Mycobacterium tuberculosis markers (IS6110 and IS1081) with a compact, AI-enabled device and smartphone-based readout, delivering rapid and reliable results at the point-of-care. Clinical evaluation across 105 samples demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity. Further validation through real-world deployment in a primary healthcare setting, using a single-gene (IS6110) configuration operated by minimally trained personnel, yielded 95.60% sensitivity and 100% specificity, benchmarked against GeneXpert. Critically, the same platform architecture, without modification, extends seamlessly to drug-resistance profiling, demonstrated here through a probe-free, allele-specific LAMP approach for identifying key mutations associated with rifampicin (rpoB) and isoniazid (katG) resistance. By combining robust molecular diagnostics with AI-driven automation in a compact and accessible format, this work represents a significant medical advancement toward democratizing TB care. The platform thus holds strong potential to enable early screening, guide timely treatment decisions, reduce transmission, and substantially strengthen global TB elimination efforts, particularly in high-burden, low-resource settings.
Tuttle, M.; Maas, C. C. H. M.; An, J.; Wessler, B. S.; Harvey, W. F.; Selker, H. P.; van Klaveren, D.; Kent, D. M.
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The Epic Sepsis Model version 2 (ESMv2) is a prediction model embedded into the electronic medical record used to warn clinicians which hospitalized patients are at risk for sepsis. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 31,951 hospitalizations of 25,760 patients to compare analyses conducted at the commonly used patient-level (where a maximum prediction prior to the onset of sepsis is used to measure performance) vs novel prediction-level (where each prediction is used to measure performance). Sepsis, defined by the Sepsis 3 criteria occurred during 1,049 hospitalizations (3.3%). Patient-level analyses suggested excellent discrimination AUC 0.86; [IQR 0.85, 0.87], whereas prediction-level analyses demonstrated lower performance AUC 0.62; [IQR 0.57, 0.65]. Low estimates of the positive predictive value (14.5% at the patient level vs 4% at the prediction level) imply a high number of false alerts. Common evaluation approaches may overstate the performance of dynamic prediction models and mislead clinical decision-making.
Hoang, N.; Yang, H.; Uddin, M. N.; Zhong, J.; Faiyaz, A.; Singh, M. V.; Boodoo, Z. D.; Sutton, K. R.; Wang, H. Z.; Sahin, B.; Khan, M. W.; Weber, M. T.; Yuan, C.; Chen, L.; Schifitto, G.
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Background: Despite the success of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), vascular comorbidities, including cerebrovascular disease, are more prominent in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to people without HIV (PWOH). However, quantitative assessments of cerebrovascular morphometry and their associations with cognitive outcomes in the context of HIV are still limited. In this study, we explore this missing link. Methods: Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) data, blood markers, and neurocognitive assessments were collected from 73 PWOH subjects (male: 57, female: 16; age: 53 {+/-} 16) and 99 PLWH subjects (male: 66, female: 30, age: 53 {+/-} 11). Vessel morphometric features were quantified using intraCranial Artery Feature Extraction (iCafe) to investigate associations between vessel morphometry, markers of monocytes, endothelial cell activation, and cognitive performance. Results: HIV status predicted a lower total number of branches ({beta} = -0.224, p = 0.001, d = -0.517) and shorter total distal length ({beta} = -0.173, p = 0.021, d = -0.370) with a moderate effect size. Total branch number was found to be negatively associated with plasma levels of monocyte markers (sCD14: r = -0.167, p = 0.033; sCD163: r = -0.157, p = 0.045) and positively correlated with white matter cerebral blood flow (r = 0.550; p [≤] 0.05). HIV status was the strongest predictor of overall cognitive performance in ANCOVA model ({beta} = -0.219, p = 0.006, d = -0.453). Conclusions: Our results suggest that cognitive impairment in PLWH is associated with vessel morphology metrics. Monocyte immune activation may contribute to changes in vessel morphology.
Reteig, L. C.; Woloshin, S.; Maglione, P. J.; Farmer, J. R.; Ong, M.-S.
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Patients with primary immunodeficiency (PID) often face prolonged diagnostic delays and may increasingly turn to large language models (LLMs) to interpret their symptoms during this period. We evaluated whether an LLM could recognize PID from symptom descriptions derived from interviews with 21 PID patients. In a prior study, we showed that GPT-4o identified PID in 96% of cases when prompted with physician-written patient histories (Rider et al., JACI, 2024). Here, when prompted with symptom descriptions in patients' own words, GPT-5 identified PID in only 7 cases (33%), although it more broadly suggested immune system issues in 18 cases (81%). The gap between these findings indicates that LLMs are sensitive to the language and framing of symptom descriptions, performing substantially worse when patients describe their own symptoms in everyday language than when clinicians summarize patient histories in structured medical terms. This study underscores the need to carefully evaluate how LLMs are used in patient-facing applications.